If i didn't have bad luck then I'd have no luck at all

Every time I deal I see players both good and bad talk so much about luck.

You are not unlucky, you’re not lucky either and neither is any other player particularly lucky or unlucky.

In fact if you believe that you are of either persuasion, then you are putting yourself in a position where you might make bad decisions as a result.
You should convince yourself that you are neither. Luck is a label that can only be applied in the past tense, never in the future. The odds of any random event occurring are precisely those dictated by the laws of probability. If you miss your open ended straight and flush draw 10 times on the bounce then when you go for it the next time your chances of hitting it are the same as the first time you went for it or indeed the any of the other nine. If you consider how well you are running when making a decision then effectively you’re on tilt - the act of playing worse than you are capable.
People tend to think of luck as an unlikely event that has occurred in their favour against the odds. In reality, however, a likely event occurring in a person’s favour can also be lucky as there was still the possibility of that event going the other way
For example you’re in a game £1/£2 pot limit and you hold

AhKs

You raise pre flop and get called by an opponent who holds

JdQc

The flop comes

As 9d Jc

You bet and are called down all the way, scooping a modest size pot when blanks fall on the turn and river. Was this lucky on your part? Most people would say no, as you had the best hand on every street and you would certainly not think your opponent “unlucky” in this situation.
However, you were lucky in a sense. Pre-flop, you were only a 65% favourite to win the hand. On the flop, if both players go down to showdown, you are still only 76% favourite. The fact you won the hand when your chance of winning was only 65% or 76% was lucky. You got a better result than you would expect on average. To look at it from a different angle if the exact hands and flop happened three times your chances of winning all of them are less than 50%!

When we play poker, we don’t tend to notice when things go as planned. We don’t notice when our flopped hands hold up or our aces don’t get cracked or even the times our opponents flush does not come in. Yet we will take notice when we get unlucky. We soon forget about the times we were fortunate enough not to get outdrawn instead focusing on the one hand, lamenting out bad luck.

Surprise your playing poker!

Last night all the dealers were getting ready for the first instalment of the “International’s Summer Festival” £50+£50 ROE all the tables were set, all the chairs were in place and all the cards were ready to go. I got called over to the table in the corner where all the dealers were sat down with 20 random coloured chips each.
“You in?” asked the dealer with cards.
“Yeah, what are you playing?”
The game was called “the game” which played like Cincinnati but with some twists. Everyone antied 1 chip, they were then dealt 5 cards and a flop. The lowest card on the flop was wild (I’m not sure what happens if the board comes 8,2,2, where the bottom two cards match) and if you wanted to stay in then you put a further 2 chips into the middle, then the last two community cards were dealt and then there was a show down, everyone is allowed to use up to 2 cards from their own hand like Omaha and the winner tales the pot of chips, this game went on for about 10mins with slight variations each hand. The TD (tournament director) came over and told the dealers to finish up, I had been running good, more or less every time I stayed in I won and every time I had folded I would have defiantly not won. I had just over 60 chips in front of me and was about to throw them in when something I had not expected happened. Some of the dealers started to throw in money for the amount of chips they were down, so I handed over 20 of my chips saying, there’s my buy-in and there’s my profit. Considering that I had no idea that I was gambling I had found the game great fun. But now that I know it is for monies I will have to wait till after my sabbatical to have another go.
The question I asked myself as I was now reviewing the hands played was would I have played the same if I knew that money was at stake? I’d like to think so as I hit a “true” straight flush (not using the wild card) 4 of a kind – twice!! But who knows....

Back to my relapsed sabbatical. Tonight I will be dealing the £30 rebuy for the main event, and watching both interesting and crazy poker. I will be dealing all week for the International’s Summer Festival before heading to Europe on tour for two weeks.

Take No Prisoners

As the evening draws to an end and a new day is starting tournaments that had started around 8 are just coming to their most crucial part – The Bubble – it is during this stage that play slows down while everyone is waiting for the three, two or one more players to be knocked out. Once those players are eliminated, all the remaining will finish somewhere in the money.
If you are willing to be the last person to be knocked out of an event without any reward, then you stand a good chance of stealing quite a few extra blinds. Quite often play slows down so much that deals are struck in order to speed the game along.

This concept of making a deal for the “would have been bubble” cuts out such an untapped area of tournament play, as so many tournaments are now dealing for the bubble. I believe that making a deal for the bubble is wrong. Making a deal is not wrong, but a deal for the bubble is. It takes a slice from everyone else’s potential profit. If for instance the tournaments get heads up then the remaining two players will be tried and generally want the ordeal to be over and done with; and as a dealer I agree with splits.

Back to the bubble

This truly is the time the big stack to rein terror over the table. Everyone is waiting for the short stack to be blinded out or knocked out; everyone is folding everything waiting for someone, namely the big stack to attack the short stack, because no one wants to go home empty handed, no one want to tell their mates that they lasted 5 hours and went out with no reward for all their play.
This is the time the big stack should be attacking everyone else BUT the short stack, because all the time the short stack is in everyone else is afraid of going out, this is the time when the big stack should be protecting the short stack as well as taking their big stack tax from everyone else. This is the Big Stack’s “Hammer Time”. So all you big stacks when it comes down to the bubble, don’t make a deal.

Sabbatical

I have decided to dedicate the next two months to observation and study of poker; both Hold’em and Omaha so I will not be partaking in any poker game, live or other. I hope that this period will help me rebuild my game as I feel at the moment my playing style has reached a level that I cannot continue without taking a few steps back. I believe that I play live so much more than online that I have developed errors that are common amongst live players. To name some of the main errors that I have come across and have assimilated, I have comprised a list.

Stealing too much in late position:

This is a major symptom of poker today. Too many players are being overly aggressive; winning Hold'em requires that you pick up the blinds every now and then. I feel that you don’t need to be constantly attacking the blinds especially in cash games as they are so small relative to the average stack size and to do so with relatively weak holdings can prove to be expensive, as you would end up winning the micro pots and losing the large pots. This strategy may work well against tight opponents but in poker today they a rare breed.

Isolating weak opponents too much:

This is another error of play today and another strain of the aggressive poker. Do not misunderstand my point, there is occasional value in isolating the weak player, however for this play to be profitable, you must get heads up with the weak player. Too often attempting to isolate one opponent will frequently bring other players in behind you. Then you may well be facing another bet from someone else who has position on you in an ever increasing pot.

Not understanding that some loose opponents are playing better than it seems:

There is an ever increasing breed of poker players who probably plays too many hands, but then plays their hands very well from the flop on. Most of these players do win and some of them do quite well. They are able to make up for their large hand selection through a good understanding of post flop play and their hand reading skills. However, if you were to just concentrate on their hand selection, you may well believe that these players are not very good. So be careful of someone who seems to be playing like a maniac and winning.

Defending the blinds too much:

They don’t call it a vicious circle for nothing. Players believe that because they steal blinds from late position that everyone else is “at it” as well and will elect to call and play a hand out of position with not necessarily a good holding, and they wonder why they are losing money.


My conclusion is summed up by something I once said to the guy who taught me to first play.

“They should have called this game patience”

Samson & Deliah

For years, Samson battled the Philistines. One time, he was attacked by them; before the fight had ended Samson had killed 1,000 Philistines with the jawbone of a donkey!

Samson loved a woman named Delilah. He didn't know the Philistines had offered her money to trick him. "Why are you so strong, Samson?" she would often ask. Although she begged, Samson wouldn't tell. Finally, she cried, "You don't love me, Samson, or you would share your secret."
"It's my vow to God" he whispered. "If my hair is cut, my strength will go." When he fell asleep, she called the Philistines, and they paid her to cut his hair. Samson's strength was gone. The Philistines bound and blinded him. Later they threw a big party. But Samson prayed. And God gave him strength to push and collapse their temple. That day, thousands of Philistines died—along with Samson

Poker players often believe in lucky seats, dealers and trinkets. Which is why my mind on the long walk back from LC’s last Thursday evening was wondering if, just maybe, cutting my hair was a bad idea? (Apart from the obvious displaying my FA Cup size ears) what if my hair was my lucky charm.

Samson's hair was not the source of his power; it was simply an outward sign that his life was set apart for God's service. By the time Delilah had Samson's hair cut off, he had already betrayed his relationship with the LORD (and thus found himself in the sh*t)

I then came to my senses, that night I had lost most playing Omaha (a game I am still studying) and the last hand I was called by a rather inebriated player who believed I was ahead but called regardless. This brings me to another point that I have observed in my poker play - I have often played at the wrong level against my opponents, let me explain...
When anyone is playing poker they play at a level. They go like this (roughly)
1. I don’t know what I have got
2. I know what I have got
3. How far behind the best have I got
4. What has my opponent got
5. What does my opponent think I have
6. What does my opponent think, that I think they have
etc etc...
On my journey home I realised that I was in trouble from the start. At the beginning of the evening I was playing at a lower level than my opposition in the Omaha hands (Level 4 vs. Level 5) - and lost. Later when playing against the well lubricated, I was thinking a few levels too high (Level 5 vs Level 2) - and lost (the level approximations are only examples). I have come to the conclusion that the premium play is to be one level higher than my opposition. So with my lesson learnt I will be putting myself back into the action with my best foot forward.

From Park Lane to Brick Lane

As much as I love this time of year with all its pomp and pageantry it does however discourage me from partaking in the finer things that life has to offer, like poker and as I'm sure you are aware that like drill; poker should be taken regularly to keep on top of your game. I managed to get a small number of games in these last few days both tournament and cash and in different locations around town, Sunday 1st day off in over 2 weeks so I headed off to the international. Seemed to be going fine until this hand

BL 300/600 - All fold around to cut off who raises 2400, Button (me) calls with JJ, both blinds fold because neither of us have played a hand in a long time.

The Flop 10, 8, 9 (rainbow)

My opponent bets 1500 – I call

Turn 2

My opponent checks and I push all in for 6000ish, after a few minutes he gets a chip count and after a few more minutes another player calls clock and during the 1 minute clock the tournament clock is paused and the dealer is a little unsure as what to do the tournament clock resumes 30sec later and just as the time is running out the other player calls (well past his allotted time) and shows QQ, river is a slight kick in the teeth as the J lands giving my already winning opponent a better winning hand

My second game came Monday afternoon with a 3rd place from 20 runners and not much to report.
Last night was a charity game where the prises were an X-Box 360, Manchester United signed football shirt and a Chelsea signed football shirt. My girlfriend took 3rd place to claim the Chelsea shirt while I was in a cash game with calling stations, the game might as well have been played with everyone anteing and then dealing all the cards out. I finished my evening of suck-outs with this hand against a player who had single handily ruined my table image earlier.
Blinds are 25/25p

I have A5h and my opponent 2nd to act raised £2 everyone folds and I elect to call in SB

Flop A 8 5

I check to let my opponent make a continuation bet which the obligingly did £5 and I raised to £20 they called

Turn 5

I check to represent a weak Ace they bet again £10 and I push all in for £35, they call.

River Q

My opponent proudly places QQ down and declares a house – I say nice hand and they mutter something about me not betting enough!!

The Duracell Bunny Is Running On Fumes

Last year for about one and a half months I had trained my body to operate normally to a 48hr day rather than a 24, this proved quite profitable at the poker tables as I was in the middle of my day and fresh as a daisy and everyone else at the poker table was tired. Last night I had the opportunity to repeat this feat. Around 11pm I had just finished dealing Poker/Blackjack/Roulette to a group of students from the music colleges around London, it was a fun themed night based upon James Bond, at the end I was in high spirits and not in the slightest bit tired. I made my way to the Casino and sat down to play. After 5 hrs this electronic bunny had come to a point where battery power was not enough to keep its head above water. So I stood up and left, after experiencing this sensation I can clearly see two problems with long session play.

1) Clarity of thought no longer exists. This was evident in the other players when I first sat down, people whom I know to be quality players were not playing well, as they failed to realise due to tiredness that they were no longer playing solid poker and were unnecessarily bleeding chips, not that I was complaining :)

2) Playing many endurance sessions will begin to have a long term effect. That is, you will get burnt out and not be able to make the quality decisions you need to make even when you are well rested. I have seen it happen to some very good players they just lose the ability to walk away from the game when their session is turning into a vicious circle of loss

After an hour of sleep this Duracell Bunny had to go to work. Today I have drunk 1 coffee two espressos’ about 1.5lt of energy drink just to get stay awake through three parades and I am expecting my sugar crash any minute now. Time for a siesta!